Multitemporal Modelling of Socio-Economic Wildfire Drivers in Central Spain between the 1980s and the 2000s:...

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Socio-economics
• Wildfire Management

Background:

• Socio-economic factors are crucial in all wildfire management phases: prevention, suppression, and restoration.
• Modeling these factors at appropriate spatial and temporal scales to understand fire regimes remains a significant challenge.

Observation:

• This study analyzed socio-economic drivers of wildfire occurrence in central Spain, a region representative of human influence on wildfires in the European Mediterranean basin.
• Wildfire occurrence was predicted for the 1980s and 2000s using Generalized Linear Models (GLM) and Maximum Entropy (Maxent) to identify changes in socio-economic drivers.

Findings:

• Maximum Entropy (Maxent) models generally outperformed Generalized Linear Models (GLM) in predicting wildfire occurrence, showing higher sensitivity and lower commission errors, especially in the 2000s.
• Both models identified population density and the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) as key predictors, but their relative contributions varied.
• The influence of WUI and distance to roads increased in the 2000s, correlating with urban sprawl and rural abandonment, while the Forest-Grassland Interface (FGI) influence decreased.

Implications:

• Human activities and socio-economic dynamics can be effectively modeled with spatio-temporal dimensions.
• Integrating socio-economic factors into wildfire risk assessments is essential for improved management strategies.
• Understanding the evolving role of socio-economic drivers is critical for adapting wildfire management to changing landscapes and human settlement patterns.