Progress, pitfalls and parallel universes: a history of insect phylogenetics

The phylogeny of insects has been both extensively studied and vigorously debated for over a century. A relatively accurate deep phylogeny had been produced by 1904. It was not substantially improved in topology until recently when phylogenomics settled many long-standing controversies. Intervening advances came instead through methodological improvement. Early molecular phylogenetic studies (1985-2005), dominated by a few genes, provided datasets that were too small to resolve controversial phylogenetic problems. Adding to the lack of consensus, this period was characterized by a polarization of philosophies, with individuals belonging to either parsimony or maximum-likelihood camps; each largely ignoring the insights of the other. The result was an unfortunate detour in which the few perceived phylogenetic revolutions published by both sides of the philosophical divide were probably erroneous. The size of datasets has been growing exponentially since the mid-1980s accompanied by a wave of confidence that all relationships will soon be known. However, large datasets create new challenges, and a large number of genes does not guarantee reliable results. If history is a guide, then the quality of conclusions will be determined by an improved understanding of both molecular and morphological evolution, and not simply the number of genes analysed.