Temperature Variability and Occurrence of Diarrhoea in Children under Five-Years-Old in Cape Town Metropolitan...

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Epidemiology
• Climate Change Impacts

Background:

• Diarrhoea is a major cause of illness in children under five.
• Climate change may influence the incidence of infectious diseases like diarrhoea.
• Understanding temperature-diarrhoea links is crucial for public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the association between temperature variations and diarrhoea incidence in children under five.
• To quantify the risk of diarrhoea associated with changes in minimum and maximum temperatures.
• To explore the impact of lagged temperature effects on diarrhoea cases.

Main Methods:

• Utilized climatic and aggregated surveillance data for diarrhoea incidence in the Cape Town Metropolitan Area (CTMA).
• Analyzed data from two seven-month peak periods over two consecutive years.
• Employed Poisson regression and lagged Poisson models with autocorrelation to assess temperature-diarrhoea relationships.

Main Results:

• A 5°C increase in minimum and maximum temperatures correlated with a 40% and 32% rise in diarrhoea cases, respectively.
• One-week lagged analysis showed a 5°C temperature increase led to a 15% and 6% rise in diarrhoea cases.
• Over 58,000 diarrhoea cases were recorded, indicating a significant public health burden.

Conclusions:

• A clear association exists between increased minimum and maximum temperatures and higher rates of diarrhoea in young children in CTMA.
• Findings suggest potential implications for childhood diarrhoea incidence under global warming scenarios.
• Further research is warranted to confirm these associations and inform adaptation strategies.