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Forecasting the medical workforce: a stochastic agent-based simulation approach.

Mário Amorim Lopes1, Álvaro Santos Almeida2, Bernardo Almada-Lobo3

  • 1INESC-TEC Porto, Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal. mario.lopes@fe.up.pt.

Health Care Management Science
|September 5, 2016
PubMed
Summary

Healthcare workforce planning is crucial. Agent-based simulation forecasts physician supply, revealing that even small changes in emigration or dropout rates significantly impact future physician numbers, challenging assumptions of a surplus.

Keywords:
Agent-based simulationHealth economicsHealthcare workforce planningMonte Carlos analysis

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Area of Science:

  • Health Services Research
  • Computational Health Sciences
  • Health Economics

Background:

  • Healthcare workforce planning is vital to prevent system insufficiency and patient deaths.
  • Simulation, particularly system dynamics, has been widely used for workforce planning.
  • Stochastic agent-based simulation offers advanced forecasting capabilities by integrating microeconomic principles and agent behavior.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a stochastic agent-based simulation model for forecasting physician supply.
  • To analyze the impact of parameter variability on workforce projections.
  • To evaluate different policy scenarios and demographic impacts on healthcare demand.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a stochastic agent-based simulation model.
  • Application to the Portuguese physician workforce.
  • Monte Carlo simulation to assess parameter sensitivity (e.g., emigration, dropout rates).
  • Scenario analysis for policy evaluation.
  • Integration of demographic projections to estimate healthcare demand.

Main Results:

  • Small variations in emigration or dropout rates can lead to significantly different physician supply forecasts.
  • The model quantifies the impact of various policy interventions on the physician workforce.
  • Analysis indicates potential physician shortages despite a declining population due to an aging demographic and increased healthcare demand.

Conclusions:

  • Agent-based simulation is a powerful tool for healthcare workforce planning beyond the hospital level.
  • Physician workforce planning requires careful consideration of parameter variability and demographic trends.
  • Portugal may face a future physician deficit, challenging perceptions of a current surplus.