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Climate Shocks and Migration: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach.

Barbara Entwisle1, Nathalie E Williams2, Ashton M Verdery3

  • 1Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA; Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA; Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA.

Population and Environment
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Climate shocks have minimal impact on migration. Agent-based models show that established migration patterns and selection factors, not climate change, drive movement decisions in rural Thailand.

Keywords:
Agent-based modelClimate changeMigrationThailandWeather

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Environmental Science
  • Agricultural Economics

Background:

  • Climate shocks, such as extreme rainfall variability, can impact agricultural systems and land use.
  • Demographic behaviors like migration, marriage, and births are dynamically linked to agricultural outcomes.
  • Understanding these linkages is crucial for predicting population responses to environmental changes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To construct and utilize an agent-based model to simulate migration patterns in response to climate shocks.
  • To investigate the influence of different weather regimes on migration in a rice-based economy.
  • To identify the key factors determining migration responses to climate variability.

Main Methods:

  • Development of an agent-based model with empirically derived rules from Nang Rong district, Northeast Thailand.
  • Simulation of migration patterns under four distinct weather scenarios: normal, wet, dry, and highly variable.
  • Integration of dynamic linkages between demographic behaviors, agriculture, land use, and rainfall patterns.

Main Results:

  • Simulations indicate a relatively small impact of climate shocks on overall migration rates.
  • Existing high baseline migration rates and strong selection factors significantly influence population movement.
  • These established migration drivers appear to overshadow the effects of climate variability.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change may have a limited direct effect on migration decisions in this context.
  • Socio-economic factors and pre-existing migration dynamics are dominant drivers of population mobility.
  • Further research should explore the interplay between climate and socio-economic factors on migration.