Assessing urban adaptive capacity to climate change

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Urban Planning
• Climate Change Adaptation

Background:

• Urban vulnerability to climate change is increasingly studied.
• Quantitative assessment of adaptive capacity, a key vulnerability component, is rarely performed.
• Existing research often lacks methods for aggregating diverse indicators of adaptive capacity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantitatively assess and map adaptive capacity in the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile.
• To develop and apply a flexible spatial fuzzy modeling methodology for adaptive capacity assessment.
• To identify spatial and temporal patterns of adaptive capacity and inform targeted interventions.

Main Methods:

• Developed a spatial fuzzy modeling approach to standardize and aggregate 17 census-derived indicators.
• Created an adaptive capacity index through a stepwise aggregation process.
• Utilized fuzzy overlay to handle indicators with varying data ranges and granularities.

Main Results:

• All municipalities in the Concepción Metropolitan Area showed increased adaptive capacity between 1992 and 2002.
• Relative differences in adaptive capacity among municipalities remained largely unchanged over the decade.
• The methodology effectively aggregated diverse indicators and handled data gaps.

Conclusions:

• Spatial fuzzy modeling provides a robust framework for assessing complex concepts like urban adaptive capacity.
• The findings highlight the need for targeted strategies to strengthen adaptive capacity in specific municipalities.
• This approach can guide urban planning and resource allocation for climate change resilience.