Spatiotemporal analysis of traffic emissions in over 5000 municipal districts in Brazil

Exposure to traffic emission is harmful to human health. Emission inventories are essential to public health policies aiming at protecting human health, especially in areas with incomplete or nonexistent air pollution monitoring networks. In Brazil, for example, only 1.7% of municipal districts have a monitoring network, and only a few studies have reported data on vehicle emission inventories. No studies have presented emission inventories by municipality. In this study, we predicted vehicular emissions for 5570 municipal districts in Brazil during the period 2001-2012. We used a top-down method to estimate emissions. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the pollutant with the highest emissions, with approximately 190 million tons per year during the period 2001-2012). For the other traffic-related pollutants, we predicted annual emissions of 1.5 million tons for carbon monoxide (CO), 1.2 million tons of nitrogen oxides (NO_x), 209,000 tons of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), 58,000 tons of particulate matter (PM), and 42,000 tons for methane (CH₄). From 2001 to 2012, CO, NMHC, and PM emissions decreased by 41, 33, and 47%, respectively, whereas those CH₄, NO_x, and CO₂ increased by 2, 4, and 84%, respectively. We estimated uncertainties in our study and found that NO_x was the pollutant with the lowest percentage difference, 8%, and NMHC with the highest one, 30%. For CO, CH₄, CO₂, and PM, the values were 22, 14, 21, and 20%, respectively. Finally, we found that during 2001 and 2012 emissions increased in the Northwest and Northeast. In contrast, pollutant emissions, except for CO₂, decreased in the Southeast, South, and part of Midwest. Our predictions can be critical to efforts developing cost-effective public policies tailored to individual municipal districts in Brazil.

Emission inventories may be an alternative approach to provide data for air quality forecasting in areas where air quality data are not available. This approach can be an effective tool in developing spatially resolved emission inventories.