Determinants of Mexico-U.S. Outward and Return Migration Flows: A State-Level Panel Data Analysis

Area of Science:

• Socioeconomics
• Environmental Studies
• Demography

Background:

• Mexico-U.S. migration is a complex phenomenon influenced by diverse factors.
• Previous studies often aggregate migration flows, masking state-level dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze Mexico-U.S. migration at the state level using unique panel data from 1995-2012.
• To explore the simultaneous effects of economic, environmental, and social factors on migration outflows and return flows.

Main Methods:

• Utilized state-to-state outward and return migration flow data between Mexico and the U.S.
• Employed fixed effects models to control for unobserved origin and destination characteristics.
• Analyzed the impact of income, drought, other climatic shocks, and violence on migration.

Main Results:

• Income positively correlates with migration outflows, particularly for states with prior migration history and low-educated migrants.
• Drought significantly increases out-migration; other climate shocks have no discernible effect.
• Violence increases out-migration from border states but decreases it elsewhere, especially when targeting migrants.
• Return flows are higher when destination income growth is lower, suggesting savings accumulation.
• The 2008 crisis altered migration geographies, with traditional corridors diminishing and new ones emerging.

Conclusions:

• State-level analysis is crucial for understanding the nuanced drivers of Mexico-U.S. migration.
• Economic, environmental (drought), and social (violence) factors play significant, context-dependent roles.
• Migration patterns are dynamic, influenced by economic crises and evolving destination opportunities.