Scale of Unpredictability Beliefs: Reliability and Validity

Experiencing unpredictability in the environment has a variety of negative outcomes. However, these are difficult to ascertain due to the lack of a psychometrically sound measure of unpredictability beliefs. This article summarizes the development of the Scale of Unpredictability Beliefs (SUB), which assesses perceptions about unpredictability in one's life, in other people, and in the world. In Study I, college students (N = 305) responded to 68 potential items as well as other scales. Exploratory factor analysis yielded three internally consistent subscales (Self, People, and World; 16 items total). Higher SUB scores correlated with more childhood family unpredictability, greater likelihood of parental alcohol abuse, stronger causal uncertainty, and lower self-efficacy. In Study II, a confirmatory factor analysis supported the three-factor solution (N = 186 college students). SUB scores correlated with personality, childhood family unpredictability, and control beliefs. In most instances the SUB predicted family unpredictability and control beliefs beyond existing unpredictability measures. Study III confirmed the factor structure and replicated family unpredictability associations in an adult sample (N = 483). This article provides preliminary support for this new multi-dimensional, self-report assessment of unpredictability beliefs, and ideas for future research are discussed.