The Efficacy of Clinical Predictors for Patients with Intermediate Risk of Choledocholithiasis

For the suspected choledocholithiasis, the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy has proposed guidelines to assign risk based on clinical predictors. The study aimed to assess the usefulness of clinical predictors of choledocholithiasis set forth by the guidelines in patients with intermediate risk of choledocholithiasis.

In 2014, 109 patients with intermediate risk of choledocholithiasis underwent endoscopic ultrasound. Their medical records were retrospectively reviewed. The gold standard for choledocholithiasis was endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography or clinical follow-up.

Based on endoscopic ultrasound findings, choledocholithiasis was suspected in 18 patients, and it was removed in 17 patients. Choledocholithiasis was absent in the remaining 91 who did not show any signs from endoscopic ultrasound. Among the 2 strong (common bile duct (CBD) diameter >6 mm and bilirubin 1.8-4 mg/dl) and 3 moderate (abnormal liver biochemical test other than bilirubin, age >55 years and gallstone pancreatitis) clinical predictors, 28.8% of patients with one of the strong predictors had choledocholithiasis; however, only 3.5% of patients with any one of the moderate predictors had choledocholithiasis. As a result, only strong clinical predictors showed predictability: increased bilirubin level (OR 3.23; 90% CI 0.85-12.28) and dilated CBD diameter (OR 5.83; 90% CI 1.93-17.57).

Only strong clinical predictors of choledocholithiasis showed predictability for patients with intermediate risk of choledocholithiasis.