A technique to determine the fastest age-adjusted masters marathon world records

This study's purpose was to develop and employ a technique to determine the fastest masters marathon world records (WR), ages 35-79 years, adjusted for age (WRadj).

From single-age WR data, a best-fit polynomial curve (WRpred1) was developed for the larger age range of 29-80 years for women and 30-80 years for men to improve curve stability in the 35-79 years range. Due to the relatively large degree of data scatter about the curve and the resultant age bias in favor of older runners, a subsample was constituted consisting of those with the lowest WR/WRpred1 ratio within each five-year age group (N = 11). A new polynomial best-fit curve (WRpred2) was developed from this subsample to become the standard against which WR would be compared across age. WRadj was computed from WR/WRpred2 for all runners, 35-79 years, from which the top ten fastest were then determined.

The WRpred2 model reduced data scatter and eliminated the age bias. Tatyana Pozdniakova, 50 years, WR = 2:31:05, WRadj = 2:12:40; and Ed Whitlock, 73 years, WR = 2:54:48, WRadj = 1:59:57, had the fastest WRadj for women and men, respectively.

This technique of iterative curve-fitting may be an optimal way of determining the fastest masters WRadj and may also be useful in better understanding the upper limits of human performance by age.