The shortest path problem in the stochastic networks with unstable topology

The stochastic shortest path length is defined as the arrival probability from a given source node to a given destination node in the stochastic networks. We consider the topological changes and their effects on the arrival probability in directed acyclic networks. There is a stable topology which shows the physical connections of nodes; however, the communication between nodes does not stable and that is defined as the unstable topology where arcs may be congested. A discrete time Markov chain with an absorbing state is established in the network according to the unstable topological changes. Then, the arrival probability to the destination node from the source node in the network is computed as the multi-step transition probability of the absorption in the final state of the established Markov chain. It is assumed to have some wait states, whenever there is a physical connection but it is not possible to communicate between nodes immediately. The proposed method is illustrated by different numerical examples, and the results can be used to anticipate the probable congestion along some critical arcs in the delay sensitive networks.