[Probability of premature mortality caused by non-communicable diseases in Beijing, 2010-2015]

Objective: To understand the probability of premature mortality caused by non-communicable diseases (NCD) in Beijing from 2010 to 2015. Methods: The data of deaths from Beijing vital registration system were used to analyze age-standardized NCD mortality rates, proportion of NCD deaths in age group <70 years and premature NCD mortality. Results: NCD deaths accounted for 90% of the total deaths in Beijing. Age-standardized NCD death rate decreased from 332.43/100 000 in 2010 to 280.02/100 000 in 2015. Meanwhile, the probability of deaths from four NCDs between in age group 30-70 years (premature NCD mortality) decreased from 12.81% to 11.11% in Beijing. The premature mortality of four NCDs in men was 14.63%, and compared with 2015 baseline, it would decrease by 16.4% to reach 2025 goal (12.23%), and the probability of premature mortality four NCDs in women was 7.54%, and compared with 2015 baseline, it would decrease by 6.8% to reach the 2025 goal (7.03%). People living in suburb areas had a higher probability of premature NCD mortality (13.67%) than those living in urban areas (9.72%) in Beijing in 2015. Conclusions: The premature NCD mortality was much higher in men than in women in Beijing. More attention should be paid to the control of risk factors for NCD premature deaths, especially in men and in suburb residents, to reach the 25×25 goal.