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Prediction model for mortality in cancer patients with pneumonia: comparison with CURB-65 and PSI
Byung Ki Ahn1, Yoon-Seon Lee1, Youn-Jung Kim1
1Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul, Korea.
Introduction And Objectives:
We aimed to develop a new prediction model of mortality in cancer patients with pneumonia and to compare its performance with CURB-65 and the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI).
Methods:
Active cancer patients who were diagnosed with pneumonia at the Emergency Department (ED) from 7/1/2014 to 12/31/2014 were consecutively included. Clinical data were collected through a medical chart review. The primary outcome was the 28-day mortality, and clinical factors were analyzed using logistic regression analysis.
Results:
Among a total of 218 analyzed patients with a median age of 64.0 years (IQR, 56.8-71.0) and a male proportion of 72%, 42 (19.3%) died within 28 days of ED admission. By multivariate logistic regression analysis, an ECOG performance status (PS) 3 (OR: 8.54, 95% CI: 3.42-21.33) or 4 (OR: 13.17, 95% CI: 3.19-54.32), SpO2 <90% (OR: 3.06, 95% CI: 1.17-8.00), and elevated lactic acid levels (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.12-1.81) were significantly associated with mortality. With these three variables, a new prediction model with total scores ranged from 0 to 6 was generated. The area under the curve of the new prediction model was 0.840, compared with 0.673 and 0.586 for CURB-65 and PSI, respectively.
Conclusion:
In cancer patients with pneumonia, a poor ECOG PS, SpO2 <90%, and lactic acid elevation are independent predictors of mortality. The new prediction model, comprising three predictors, performs better in predicting mortality in cancer patients than CURB-65 or PSI.
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