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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Mar 14, 2026

Author Spotlight: Innovative Approaches to Understanding Plant Structure-Function Relationships for Climate-Resilient Crops
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Patterns of crop cover under future climates.

Luciana L Porfirio1, David Newth2, Ian N Harman2

  • 1Oceans & Atmosphere, The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Yarralumla, ACT, 2601, Australia. luciana.porfirio@csiro.au.

Ambio
|September 25, 2016
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Future climate change will significantly alter global crop cover, with the Northern Hemisphere and temperate regions experiencing greater impacts. This research identifies key areas for adaptation and investment in response to these shifts.

Keywords:
Agro-ecological zonesClimate changeFood systemsGovernanceLand coverLand use

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Global crop cover is subject to complex interactions between climate change and socio-economic factors.
  • Understanding regional vulnerabilities is crucial for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project future changes in global and regional crop cover under various climate and socio-economic scenarios.
  • To assess the influence of drivers like regional GDP on crop cover.
  • To identify critical regions for adaptation and investment.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized climate data from four global circulation models/earth system models under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios (2000–2100).
  • Employed Random Forest, an empirical statistical model, for projecting future crop cover.
  • Analyzed impacts considering socio-economic, technological, and biophysical drivers.

Main Results:

  • Globally, projected increases and decreases in crop cover are expected to balance out.
  • The Northern Hemisphere is projected to experience more significant climate impacts on crop cover than the Southern Hemisphere.
  • Temperate regions are projected to see greater decreases in crop cover compared to tropical regions.

Conclusions:

  • Crop cover changes vary significantly by region, with temperate and Northern Hemisphere areas facing greater risks.
  • The study highlights the need for targeted adaptation measures and strategic investments to address climate change impacts on agriculture.
  • Identifying regions of concern and opportunity is vital for future food security and land management.