General continuous-time Markov model of sequence evolution via insertions/deletions: local alignment probability...

Insertions and deletions (indels) account for more nucleotide differences between two related DNA sequences than substitutions do, and thus it is imperative to develop a method to reliably calculate the occurrence probabilities of sequence alignments via evolutionary processes on an entire sequence. Previously, we presented a perturbative formulation that facilitates the ab initio calculation of alignment probabilities under a continuous-time Markov model, which describes the stochastic evolution of an entire sequence via indels with quite general rate parameters. And we demonstrated that, under some conditions, the ab initio probability of an alignment can be factorized into the product of an overall factor and contributions from regions (or local alignments) delimited by gapless columns.

Here, using our formulation, we attempt to approximately calculate the probabilities of local alignments under space-homogeneous cases. First, for each of all types of local pairwise alignments (PWAs) and some typical types of local multiple sequence alignments (MSAs), we numerically computed the total contribution from all parsimonious indel histories and that from all next-parsimonious histories, and compared them. Second, for some common types of local PWAs, we derived two integral equation systems that can be numerically solved to give practically exact solutions. We compared the total parsimonious contribution with the practically exact solution for each such local PWA. Third, we developed an algorithm that calculates the first-approximate MSA probability by multiplying total parsimonious contributions from all local MSAs. Then we compared the first-approximate probability of each local MSA with its absolute frequency in the MSAs created via a genuine sequence evolution simulator, Dawg. In all these analyses, the total parsimonious contributions approximated the multiplication factors fairly well, as long as gap sizes and branch lengths are at most moderate. Examination of the accuracy of another indel probabilistic model in the light of our formulation indicated some modifications necessary for the model's accuracy improvement.

At least under moderate conditions, the approximate methods can quite accurately calculate ab initio alignment probabilities under biologically more realistic models than before. Thus, our formulation will provide other indel probabilistic models with a sound reference point.