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Predicting range-shift success potential for tropical marine fishes using external morphology
Shannen M Smith1, Rebecca J Fox2, Jennifer M Donelson3
1School of Life Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, New South Wales 2007, Australia shannen.m.smith@outlook.com.
Biology Letters
|September 29, 2016
Summary
Climate change is enabling tropical fish to survive Australia's winters. Morphological niche analysis predicts butterflyfish and the moorish idol are likely to establish new populations, potentially impacting native species.
Area of Science:
- Marine biology
- Ecology
- Climate change impacts
Background:
- Global change drives species' range shifts, necessitating predictions of establishment success in new habitats.
- Tropical fish larvae from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) are transported to temperate Australian coasts annually via the East Australian Current (EAC).
- Currently, these tropical vagrants experience high winter mortality, but projected warming may enable overwintering survival.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project which tropical fish species are most likely to establish viable populations in temperate Australian habitats under future climate conditions.
- To utilize morphological niche analysis as a predictive tool for successful fish range shifts.
- To identify potential impacts on native communities due to altered species composition.
Main Methods:
- Morphological niche analysis was employed to assess the potential for species' range shifts.
- The study projected which tropical vagrant fish species could exploit new niches with reduced overwintering mortality.
- Analysis considered the position of vagrant species within the morphospace to infer potential competitive pressures.
Main Results:
- Species within the butterflyfish family (Chaetodontidae) and the moorish idol (Zanclus cornutus) show the highest likelihood of successful range expansion.
- Warming winter ocean temperatures are predicted to remove physiological barriers to overwintering for tropical vagrants.
- The distribution of vagrant species in morphospace suggests disproportionate competitive impacts on specific native community components.
Conclusions:
- Climate change, specifically ocean warming, is facilitating the establishment of tropical fish in temperate Australian waters.
- Butterflyfish and the moorish idol are identified as key species likely to expand their ranges.
- The influx of these species may lead to significant competitive pressures on native marine communities.
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