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Relative Importance of Climate Variables to Population Vital Rates: A Quantitative Synthesis for the Lesser

Julia E Earl1, Samuel D Fuhlendorf1

  • 1Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, Oklahoma, United States of America.

Plos One
|September 30, 2016
PubMed
Summary

Individual and geographic factors better predict lesser prairie-chicken vital rates than climate change variables. Climate means and extremes were less effective predictors than other factors in this quantitative synthesis.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology and Wildlife Biology
  • Climate Change Impacts
  • Population Dynamics

Background:

  • Climate change influences temperature and precipitation, impacting wildlife vital rates.
  • Understanding whether climate means, extremes, or both are crucial for predicting vital rates is essential.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare the predictive power of climate variables (means and extremes) against geographic, individual, and habitat factors for lesser prairie-chicken vital rates.
  • To determine if climate models are sufficient for predicting population vital rates.

Main Methods:

  • Quantitative synthesis of lesser prairie-chicken vital rates across their range.
  • Information theoretic approach to rank predictive models.
  • Comparison of climate models with geographic, individual, and habitat models.

Main Results:

  • Climate models were not the best predictors for clutch size, nest success, or seasonal survival.
  • Nesting attempt (first vs. second) significantly influenced clutch size and nest success.
  • Latitude affected clutch size differently for first and second nesting attempts.
  • Subadult survival was higher than adult survival, but data were limited.

Conclusions:

  • Individual characteristics and geographic variables are superior predictors of lesser prairie-chicken vital rates compared to climate variables.
  • Limitations in statistical power or climate data precision may affect the observed relationships.
  • Potential time lags or local adaptation may also influence climate-vital rate relationships.