Prognostic Value of Metabolic Liver Function Tests: a Study on 711 Cirrhotic Patients

The prognosis of cirrhotic patients is usually assessed by Child-Pugh and MELD scores. Metabolic liver function tests such as aminopyrine breath test (ABT) and indocyanine green clearance (IGC) have been shown to reveal hepatocellular dysfunction. The aim of this retrospective study was to compare the prognostic value of the MELD score, Child-Pugh score, ABT and IGC in a large cohort of cirrhotic patients.

Between January 1996 and June 2008, 711 cirrhotic patients were included and the primary endpoint was survival without LT. The ROC curves with c-statistics, correlation coefficient and survival were calculated.

Metabolic function tests and scores were strongly correlated. At the time of evaluation, 111 patients had died and 520 had received a transplant. Prognostic ability (estimated by the AUROC curve) to predict survival without LT at 6 months was 0.662, 0.691, 0.738 and 0.715 for ABT, IGC, Child-Pugh score and MELD score, respectively. Similarly, at 1 year, AUROC was 0.738 for Child-Pugh score, 0.716 for MELD score, 0.693 for IGC clearance and 0.651 for ABT.

Our results strongly confirm that IGC and ABT have a high prognostic value in cirrhotic patients, similar to Child-Pugh and MELD scores. They could be developed to routinely evaluate the prognosis of patients in addition to clinical and biochemical data.