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Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

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Nothing new under the sun: The NIST primer on "Probability and Likelihood Ratios" gives a misleading negative portrayal of the likelihood-ratio framework.

Forensic science international. Synergy·2026
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Incorrect formula for calculation of likelihood ratios used in forensic anthropology: Comments on Scott & Rogers (2026).

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Addendum to: A response to EA-4/23 INF:2025 "The Assessment and Accreditation of Opinions and Interpretations using ISO/IEC 17025:2017".

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What is the best way to present likelihood ratios? A review of past research and recommendations for future research.

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Does explaining the meaning of likelihood ratios improve lay understanding?

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Commentary on: Aggadi N, Zeller K, Busey T. Quantifying the strength of firearms comparisons based on error rate studies. J Forensic Sci. 2024;70(1):84-97. https://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.15646; Warren EC, Handley JC, Sheets HD. Cross entropy and log likelihood ratio cost as performance measures for multi-conclusion categorical outcomes scales. J Forensic Sci. 2024;70(2):589-606. https://doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.15686.

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What should a forensic practitioner's likelihood ratio be?

Geoffrey Stewart Morrison1, Ewald Enzinger2

  • 1Morrison & Enzinger, Independent Forensic Consultants, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada & Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Department of Linguistics, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.

Science & Justice : Journal of the Forensic Science Society
|October 6, 2016
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Forensic scientists should report the precision of their likelihood ratio (LR) estimates. Empirical LR calculations, not subjective beliefs, provide accurate evidence, with precision reporting crucial for legal decision-making.

Keywords:
Likelihood ratioPrecisionReliabilityVerbal scale

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Area of Science:

  • Forensic Science
  • Statistical Inference
  • Evidence Evaluation

Background:

  • Likelihood ratios (LRs) are crucial in forensic science for evaluating evidence.
  • Current practices often lack empirical precision reporting for LRs.
  • Subjective probability assessments are insufficient for objective evidence evaluation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To advocate for empirical assessment and reporting of likelihood ratio precision.
  • To propose a framework for non-arbitrary use of LR precision by triers of fact.
  • To highlight the limitations of verbal scale reporting for LR values.

Main Methods:

  • Empirical calculation of likelihood ratio estimates based on specified hypotheses and measurements.
  • Statistical methods for quantifying sampling uncertainty and reporting precision.
  • Development of a normative framework for interpreting empirical LR results.

Main Results:

  • Likelihood ratio estimates are subject to sampling uncertainty.
  • Reporting precision, typically as a credible interval, is essential for transparency.
  • Verbal scales for LRs are problematic due to arbitrary range definitions.

Conclusions:

  • Forensic practitioners must empirically determine and report LR precision.
  • Objective, data-driven LR estimates with precision are vital for legal proceedings.
  • A normative framework can guide the non-arbitrary use of forensic evidence precision.