Dynamics of morphological evolution in experimental Escherichia coli populations

Here, we applied a two-stage clonal expansion model of morphological (cell-size) evolution to a long-term evolution experiment with Escherichia coli. Using this model, we derived the incidence function of the appearance of cell-size stability, the waiting time until this morphological stability, and the conditional and unconditional probabilities of morphological stability. After assessing the parameter values, we verified that the calculated waiting time was consistent with the experimental results, demonstrating the effectiveness of the two-stage model. According to the relative contributions of parameters to the incidence function and the waiting time, cell-size evolution is largely determined by the promotion rate, i.e., the clonal expansion rate of selectively advantageous organisms. This rate plays a prominent role in the evolution of cell size in experimental populations, whereas all other evolutionary forces were found to be less influential.