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Population size is dynamic, increasing with birth rates and immigration, and decreasing with death rates and emigration. In ideal conditions with unlimited resources, populations can increase exponentially, which plots as a J-shaped growth rate curve of population size against time. This type of curve is characteristic of newly-introduced invasive species, or populations that have suffered catastrophic declines and are rebounding.
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Exponential models are essential for describing rapid, multiplicative changes in natural systems, such as population growth. When a population doubles at regular intervals, the process can be modeled using a suitable base. For instance, a bacterial culture that doubles every three hours follows the model n(t)=n0⋅2t/3, where n(t) is the population at the time t.A more general model uses the natural base e, especially for continuous growth. This takes the form n(t)=n0⋅ert, where r is...
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There have been five major extinction events throughout geological history, resulting in the elimination of biodiversity, followed by a rebound of species that adapted to the new conditions. In the current geological epoch, the Holocene, there is a sixth extinction event in progress. This mass extinction has been attributed to human activities and is thus provisionally called the Anthropocene. In 2019 the human population reached 7.7 billion people and is projected to comprise 10 billion by...
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Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
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Explosive genetic evidence for explosive human population growth.

Feng Gao1, Alon Keinan1

  • 1Department of Biological Statistics and Computational Biology, Ithaca, NY 14850, United States.

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Recent human population growth has led to an excess of rare genetic variants. This review discusses methods to study population size changes and their impact on genomics and disease risk.

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Area of Science:

  • Population Genetics
  • Genomics
  • Evolutionary Biology

Background:

  • Next-generation sequencing has generated vast genetic variation data.
  • Studies reveal an unexpected excess of rare genetic variants in human populations.
  • This excess is largely attributed to recent rapid human population expansion.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review literature on inferred human population size changes.
  • To survey methods for inferring historical population dynamics.
  • To discuss implications of population growth on genomics and disease research.

Main Methods:

  • Review of recent scientific literature on population genetics.
  • Analysis of methodologies for inferring population size history.
  • Synthesis of findings regarding recent human population growth.

Main Results:

  • Multiple studies and diverse methodologies indicate recent explosive growth in human populations, particularly Europeans.
  • State-of-the-art methods for inferring population size changes are available.
  • Recent population growth impacts personalized genomics and disease architecture.

Conclusions:

  • Understanding recent population expansion is crucial for interpreting genetic variation.
  • Population non-equilibrium affects purifying selection and complex disease genetics.
  • Accurate inference of population history is vital for genetic studies.