Related Experiment Video
Updated: Mar 14, 2026

An Experimental Paradigm for the Prediction of Post-Operative Pain PPOP
Published on: January 27, 2010
Predicting postoperative morphine consumption in children
Vilnis Silins1, Christopher Brasher1, Freedom Antus1
1Department of Anaesthesia, Intensive care, Robert-Debré University Hospital, Paris Diderot University, Paris Sorbonne Cité, Paris, France.
Insights
Younger age, female gender, longer surgery, and higher initial morphine doses predict higher postoperative morphine needs in children. This helps manage pediatric pain effectively.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Anesthesiology
- Pain Management
- Pharmacokinetics
Background:
- Morphine is a primary analgesic for moderate to severe postoperative pain in children.
- Limited research exists on factors predicting morphine consumption in pediatric surgical patients.
- Accurate prediction of analgesic needs is crucial for effective pain management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify predictors of postoperative morphine consumption in pediatric surgical patients.
- To develop and validate a statistical model for predicting morphine requirements.
Main Methods:
- Prospective enrollment of pediatric surgical patients receiving morphine postoperatively.
- Data collection included morphine consumption, patient demographics, surgery details, and pain intensity.
- Statistical analysis involved univariate and multivariate linear regression to build and validate a predictive model.
Main Results:
- Multivariate analysis identified younger age, female gender, longer surgery duration, and higher initial morphine titration as significant predictors.
- The developed model explained 57% of the variability in total morphine consumption by postoperative day 3.
- The model showed significant correlation between observed and predicted morphine values in the validation cohort (r=0.67, P<0.0001).
Conclusions:
- Age, gender, surgery duration, and initial morphine titration are strong predictors of 3-day postoperative morphine consumption in children.
- This predictive model can assist clinicians in optimizing postoperative pain management for pediatric surgical patients.
- Understanding these factors enables better anticipation and control of analgesic requirements.
Background:
Morphine is the most commonly used postoperative analgesic for moderate to severe pain in paediatric patients, but there is little research into predictive factors correlating with postoperative morphine consumption.
Methods:
All patients undergoing surgery who received morphine postoperatively over eight months were prospectively enrolled. Data analysed included total morphine consumption to day 3, age, weight, type of surgery, ASA status, preoperative opioid administration, predicted postoperative pain intensity (according to French Society of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care classification) and surgery duration. Two cohorts were constructed: the first over 6months to construct a statistical model and the second over 2months to validate the model. ANOVA univariate analyses and multivariate linear analysis were performed.
Results:
One hundred and fifty-three patients were included in the construct cohort and 40 in the validation cohort. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that total morphine consumption through postoperative day 3 was independently increased by a decreased age, female gender, an increased duration of surgery and an increased morphine titration in PACU. Overall, the model explained 57% of morphine requirement variability. When the model was applied to the validation cohort, a significant correlation was demonstrated between observed and predicted values: r=0.67, P<0.0001.
Conclusion:
Age, gender, duration of surgery and doses of titrated morphine in PACU proved to be strong predictors of postoperative morphine consumption by day 3 during paediatric surgery. Knowledge of such factors may help clinicians to better manage postoperative pain in children.
More Related Videos
Related Concept Videos
Opioid Analgesics: Morphine and Other Natural Cogeners
Opioid Analgesics: Synthetic and Semisynthetic Opioids
Endoscopic Procedures IV: Sigmoidoscopy and Laproscopy
Sigmoidoscopy
Sigmoidoscopy is a diagnostic procedure that uses a flexible sigmoidoscope equipped with a light source and camera to examine the rectum and sigmoid colon. The procedure involves inserting the tube through the anus...
Analgesia and Pain Management
Drug Dosing: Infants and Children
Parenteral Anesthetics: Overview

