Analysis of climatic factors involved in the BTV-1 incursion in Central Italy in 2014

In 2012, six years after the previous epidemic, Bluetongue virus serotype 1 (BTV-1) re-emerged in Sardinia causing a limited number of outbreaks. Due to impossibility of implementing a vaccination campaign, the BTV-1 then spread all over the island in 2013 with about 7,000 outbreaks and, in September 2013, the virus reached Central Italy, with a limited number of outbreaks located along the Tyrrhenian coast. The surveillance system in place in Italy detected viral circulation during the following winter, when a few seroconversions were notified. Starting from mid July 2014, a huge number of outbreaks were reported and the disease spread toward inland territories, affecting Umbria, Abruzzo and Marche. In 2014, BTV-1 affected areas where Culicoides species belonging to the Obsoletus and Pulicaris complexes were identified as main vectors. The analysis of temperature and rainfall in Central Italy revealed a significant warmer winter (2013-2014) and a cooler and rainy summer season (2014). These climatic aspects might have certainly favored the overwintering of the virus in local vector or host populations in the Tyrrhenian coast, and, then, the spread of the virus to the rest of Central Italy. However, the heavy circulation of BTV-1 and the severity of clinical outbreaks recorded leave a number of 'open questions' that are currently under investigations.