Cancer incidence and mortality projections in the UK until 2035

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Cancer Research

Background:

• Cancer incidence and mortality projections are crucial for understanding risk factors and future healthcare demands.
• Anticipating the evolving cancer landscape informs public health strategies and resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project cancer incidence and mortality rates in the UK from 2015 to 2035.
• To identify specific cancer types with accelerating incidence and mortality trends.
• To inform healthcare planning regarding future cancer burden.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an age-period-cohort model with natural cubic splines for projections.
• Employed UK data from 1979-2014, with population projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
• Developed modified datasets for breast and prostate cancer analyses.

Main Results:

• Projected annual incidence rate changes: -0.03% for males, +0.11% for females (2015-2035).
• Thyroid, liver, oral, and kidney cancers show accelerating incidence. Breast and prostate cancers remain most common.
• Mortality rates are generally decreasing, but liver, oral, and anal cancers show increases. Significant case and death numbers projected for 2035.

Conclusions:

• Continued efforts to address cancer risk factors are essential.
• Healthcare planners must account for increased cancer burden from population growth and aging.
• Projections highlight the need for adaptive public health interventions and healthcare system preparedness.