[Does Return to Work after Vocational Retraining Depend on Labour Market?]

Background: Studies about the impact of the labour market on return to work (RTW) after vocational retraining are contradictory. We examined if (1) RTW after vocational retraining depends on regional labour markets and if (2) the regional labour markets variance affects the influence of personal characteristics on RTW. Methods: The data consisted of the scientific use file (completed rehabilitation in the course of health insurance 2002-2009) of the German Federal Pension Insurance (51 626 persons of 7 year cohorts) and regional economic data (412 districts). Multilevel logistic regression models were used. Results: At the context level the logarithmic unemployment rate was the most relevant predictor. The RTW rate decreased with increasing unemployment rate, saturating at an unemployment rate of around 15%. Significant differences between the intervention types (integration, 1-year and 2-year vocational retraining programs) were observed. The effects of individual predictors were clearer with higher unemployment, e. g. education, individual unemployment, income and further vocational interventions prior to vocational retraining. Conclusion: We demonstrate that the success of vocational retraining depends on the regional labour market. Furthermore individual predictors show stronger effects on success with the context of "poor" labour markets. In addition to the existing evidence the regional unemployment rate should be taken into consideration in effectiveness research studies and benchmarking processes in quality assurance.