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Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time
Thomas Hopper1, Marcia S Meixler1
1Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, United States of America.
Plos One
|October 13, 2016
Summary
Coastal vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, was modeled across past, present, and future scenarios. Natural habitats play a key role in reducing erosion and storm surge risk for urban coastlines.
Area of Science:
- Coastal ecology
- Environmental modeling
- Urban planning
Background:
- Coastal ecosystems face numerous stressors like sea-level rise and storm surge, leading to erosion.
- Urban coastal areas are critical due to high population density but are understudied at a landscape scale.
- Spatial data resolution is often limited in urban coastal vulnerability assessments.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model and map coastal vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York.
- To assess the role of natural habitats in mitigating coastal vulnerability.
- To analyze vulnerability across historical, current, and future scenarios (1609, 2015, 2080).
Main Methods:
- Utilized the InVEST 3.2.0 model to assess nine coastal vulnerability metrics.
- Analyzed spatial vulnerability data across multiple time periods.
- Examined vulnerability by stakeholder ownership and proximity to Hurricane Sandy damage.
Main Results:
- Significant changes in vulnerability metrics were observed across past, current, and future scenarios (excluding relief and wave exposure).
- Marsh islands in Jamaica Bay are currently vulnerable and projected for inundation by 2080, increasing shoreline risk.
- Vulnerability varied significantly by stakeholder, with Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area showing the largest erodible shorelines.
Conclusions:
- The study highlights the dynamic nature of coastal vulnerability and the critical role of natural habitats.
- Future inundation of marsh islands poses increased risk to urban shorelines.
- The developed methodology offers valuable predictive insights for coastal resource managers to guide restoration and protection efforts.
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