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Expansion Under Climate Change: The Genetic Consequences.

Jimmy Garnier1, Mark A Lewis2,3

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Climate change drives population range shifts. Slow climate change preserves genetic diversity by promoting spatial mixing, unlike rapid change which erodes it through gene surfing.

Keywords:
Climate changeNeutral genetic diversityRange expansionRange shiftReaction–diffusion modelTravelling wave

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Population Genetics

Background:

  • Climate change is a major driver of population range expansions and shifts.
  • The genetic consequences of these range dynamics are not fully understood.
  • Ecological dynamics are intrinsically linked to climate-driven environmental changes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of genetic structure during climate-driven range shifts.
  • To investigate how the rate of climate change impacts genetic diversity during range expansions.
  • To model population responses in a time-evolving heterogeneous environment.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a deterministic reaction-diffusion model.
  • Coupled the model to a time-developing heterogeneous environment reflecting climate change.
  • Decomposed travelling wave solutions into neutral genetic components.

Main Results:

  • Slow climate change promotes the spatial mixing of genetic components, preserving genetic diversity.
  • Fast climate change leads to range expansions that erode genetic diversity, akin to gene surfing.
  • Heterogeneous environments under slow climate change generate pushed travelling wave solutions, fostering diversity.

Conclusions:

  • The rate of climate change critically influences the genetic consequences of range shifts.
  • Slow climate change can maintain genetic diversity through enhanced mixing in heterogeneous environments.
  • Rapid climate change poses a significant threat to genetic diversity during population range shifts.