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Ecological Risk Assessment at The Regional Scale: Ecological Archives A005-001.

R L Graham, C T Hunsaker, R V O'Neill

    Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
    |May 1, 1991
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study models ecological risks from elevated ozone in forests, showing spatial factors are crucial for regional assessments. Even minor forest changes can significantly impact lake water quality and forest edges.

    Area of Science:

    • Environmental Science
    • Ecology
    • Risk Assessment

    Background:

    • Ecological risk assessments inform policy and regulatory decisions on environmental hazards.
    • Regional-scale assessments require consideration of spatial characteristics and terrestrial-aquatic linkages.
    • Lack of region-specific data and spatial information presents challenges in regional assessments.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To describe and demonstrate a method for regional-scale ecological risk assessment.
    • To model environmental risks associated with elevated ozone in a forested region.
    • To highlight the importance of spatial characteristics and ecological linkages in risk assessment.

    Main Methods:

    • Developed a stochastic spatial model for land-cover change to assess risks from ozone-induced tree mortality and bark beetle attacks.

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  • Modeled impacts on forest cover, edge, interior, landscape pattern, and lake water quality under two ozone levels.
  • Linked land-cover model output to an empirical water-quality model to evaluate risks to lake ecosystems.

    • Main Results:

    • Ozone-induced conifer mortality poses significant risks to features sensitive to coniferous forest location, like forest edges, even with slight overall cover reduction.
    • A high probability of changes in regional lake water quality was identified due to location-specific forest cover alterations.
    • The study demonstrated the importance of spatial data and ecological linkages in regional risk assessments.

    Conclusions:

    • Regional ecological risk assessments must incorporate spatial dynamics and interconnectedness of ecosystems.
    • Elevated ozone levels can trigger cascading effects, impacting forest structure and aquatic ecosystems.
    • The developed modeling approach provides a framework for evaluating ecological risks at a regional scale.