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Related Concept Videos

What is Climate?01:16

What is Climate?

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Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
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A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate.

Ali Sarhadi1, María Concepción Ausín2, Michael P Wiper2

  • 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, N2L-3G1, Canada.

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|October 21, 2016
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Climate change is altering extreme weather events, making traditional stationary risk assessments unreliable for infrastructure. A new adaptive, time-varying risk framework is essential for robust design in a changing environment.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Climate science
  • Risk assessment

Background:

  • Anthropogenic global warming is causing significant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events.
  • Current risk assessment methods often rely on stationary assumptions, which are increasingly invalidated by climate variability.
  • This discrepancy poses risks to the reliability of infrastructure, particularly water systems.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To highlight the limitations of stationary-based risk methods in the context of a changing climate.
  • To introduce and advocate for a new adaptive, multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework.
  • To improve the resilience and reliability of infrastructure design and water system management.

Main Methods:

  • Comparative analysis of existing multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks against observed climate changes.
  • Development of a generalized time-varying risk concept.
  • Application of the new concept to infrastructure design strategies.

Main Results:

  • Existing multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are inadequate for projecting future extreme climate behaviors.
  • Static, stationary-based multivariate risk methods can lead to undesirable outcomes in water system infrastructure design.
  • The proposed time-varying risk concept demonstrates applicability to stochastic multi-dimensional systems.

Conclusions:

  • The static stationary concept is obsolete for risk assessment in changing environments.
  • A flexible, multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework is necessary for updated infrastructure design.
  • The generalized time-varying risk concept offers a robust approach for systems influenced by environmental change.