Estimating the Risk of Future Reading Difficulties in Kindergarten Children: A Research-Based Model and Its Clinical...

Speech-language pathologists have the skills and knowledge needed to play an important role in the early identification of children who are at risk for reading difficulties. Whereas research has identified language and other factors that may be predictive of future reading problems, studies have not provided the statistical models and classification data needed for the implementation of early identification programs. In this paper, we report the results of a longitudinal study that examined kindergarten predictors of second-grade reading outcome.

Six hundred and four children were given a battery of language, early literacy, and nonverbal cognitive measures in kindergarten as part of an epidemiologic study of language impairments in children. Follow-up testing of reading achievement was completed in second grade. Participants were divided into those children with and without reading difficulties.

Findings indicated that five kindergarten variables (letter identification, sentence imitation, phonological awareness, rapid naming, and mother's education) uniquely predicted reading outcome in second grade.

A logistic regression formula and classification data based on these results are provided. Suggestions are offered concerning how this information could be used in an early identification and intervention program for children who are at risk for reading difficulties.