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Forecasting Urban Forest Ecosystem Structure, Function, and Vulnerability.

James W N Steenberg1,2, Andrew A Millward3, David J Nowak4

  • 1Environmental Applied Science and Management, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 2K3, Canada. james.steenberg@ryerson.ca.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Urban forest management in Toronto significantly impacts ecosystem services, with strategic goals sometimes leading to unintended declines in carbon storage. Vulnerability assessments are crucial for equitable planning and understanding forest changes.

Keywords:
DisturbanceEcological modelingScaleStrategic planningVulnerability assessmenti-Tree forecast

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Area of Science:

  • Urban ecology
  • Forestry
  • Environmental management

Background:

  • Urban forests provide essential ecosystem services but face significant stress due to altered landscapes.
  • Understanding spatial and temporal changes, along with vulnerability, is critical for effective urban forest management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess and analyze spatial-temporal changes and vulnerability of Toronto's urban forest resource.
  • To model future forest structure and function under various management scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Spatially-explicit, indicator-based vulnerability assessment.
  • i-Tree Forecast modeling simulating nine scenarios over 45 years.
  • Analysis at both ecosystem and municipal scales.

Main Results:

  • Significant mismatches in ecological processes were observed between spatial scales.
  • Management actions, such as invasive species removal and increased planting, had a greater impact than disturbances like ice storms or the Asian longhorned beetle.
  • Incorporating vulnerability parameters increased spatial heterogeneity and disparities in ecosystem service access.

Conclusions:

  • Urban forest management decisions can lead to unanticipated functional losses and social inequities.
  • Vulnerability assessment provides critical insights for strategic planning and managing structural and functional changes in urban forests.
  • The relationship between vulnerability and ecosystem structure/function is often variable and uncertain.