Prediction of Outcome After Emergency High-Risk Intra-abdominal Surgery Using the Surgical Apgar Score

With current literature quoting mortality rates up to 45%, emergency high-risk abdominal surgery has, compared with elective surgery, a significantly greater risk of death and major complications. The Surgical Apgar Score (SAS) is predictive of outcome in elective surgery, but has never been validated exclusively in an emergency setting.

A consecutive prospective single-center cohort study of 355 adults undergoing emergency high-risk abdominal surgery between June 2013 and May 2014 is presented. The primary outcome measure was 30-day mortality. Secondary outcome measures were postoperative major complications, defined according to the Clavien-Dindo scale as well as the American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program guidelines, and intensive care unit admission. The SAS was calculated postoperatively. Cochran-Armitage test for trend was used to evaluate the incidence of both outcomes. Area under the curve was used to demonstrate the scores' discriminatory power.

One hundred eighty-one (51.0%) patients developed minor or no complications. The overall incidence of major complications was 32.7% and the overall death rate was 16.3%. Risk of major complications, death, and intensive care unit admission increased significantly with decreasing SAS (P < .001). The score's c-statistics were 0.63.

We have demonstrated the SAS to be significantly predictive but weakly discriminative for major complications and death among adults undergoing emergency high-risk abdominal surgery. Despite its predictive value, the SAS cannot in its current version be recommended as a standalone prognostic tool in an emergency setting.