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Related Experiment Videos

Modeling percentage change: a potential linear mirage.

S Suissa1, C Levinton, J M Esdaile

  • 1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

Journal of Clinical Epidemiology
|January 1, 1989
PubMed
Summary
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Percentage change in variables like serum creatinine can mask quadratic relationships in longitudinal studies. This study proposes an alternative outcome measure to avoid misinterpretation and resolve conflicting prognostic marker results in lupus nephritis.

Area of Science:

  • Biostatistics
  • Nephrology
  • Clinical Epidemiology

Background:

  • Percentage change is a common outcome measure in longitudinal studies for prognosis and therapy.
  • However, its interpretation can be problematic when the baseline value is included in regression models.
  • This has led to conflicting results regarding prognostic markers, such as serum creatinine in lupus nephritis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To demonstrate how linear regression models can mask quadratic relationships when using percentage change as an outcome.
  • To resolve conflicting interpretations of serum creatinine as a prognostic marker in lupus nephritis.
  • To propose a straightforward, alternative outcome measure free from these interpretational issues.

Main Methods:

  • Demonstration of mathematical masking of quadratic relationships in linear regression models.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Analysis of data from 87 patients with lupus nephritis.
  • Development and illustration of an alternative outcome measure.

    • Main Results:

    • Including baseline values in percentage change calculations within linear regression models inevitably masks quadratic relationships.
    • This masking has contributed to conflicting findings on serum creatinine's prognostic value in lupus nephritis.
    • The proposed alternative outcome measure avoids these interpretation problems.

    Conclusions:

    • The use of percentage change as an outcome measure in longitudinal studies requires careful consideration due to potential for masked relationships.
    • Serum creatinine's prognostic value in lupus nephritis has been subject to misinterpretation because of this modeling issue.
    • A novel, alternative outcome measure offers a more reliable approach for longitudinal data analysis in clinical research.