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Modeled Tradeoffs between Developed Land Protection and Tidal Habitat Maintenance during Rising Sea Levels.

Daniel Cadol1, Andrew J Elmore2, Steven M Guinn2

  • 1Earth and Environmental Science, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM, 87801, United States of America.

Plos One
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PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Tidal habitats can migrate inland to survive rising sea levels. Protecting coastal developments may cause significant tidal habitat loss, especially under severe sea level rise scenarios.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Change Science

Background:

  • Tidal habitats provide essential ecosystem services, including shoreline protection and nutrient cycling.
  • Vertical accretion allows tidal marshes and swamps resilience to sea level rise.
  • Inland migration is crucial for tidal habitat persistence as sea levels rise, but development can impede this.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the importance of inland migration for maintaining tidal habitat abundance under various sea level rise scenarios.
  • To model the impact of development on tidal habitat resilience to rising sea levels.

Main Methods:

  • Development of the Marsh Accretion and Inundation Model (MAIM), a spatially explicit model tracking elevation and habitat shifts.
  • Incorporation of elevation-dependent net land surface elevation gain functions into the model.
  • Application of the MAIM to the tidal Potomac River system in the metropolitan Washington, DC region.

Main Results:

  • Public open spaces, such as National Park Service units, act as refuges for tidal habitats, maintaining habitat area under moderate sea level rise (0.7m and 1.1m by 2100).
  • Under a severe sea level rise scenario (1.7m by 2100), habitat area is preserved only if no coastal development is protected.
  • Protecting all existing development results in 5%, 10%, and 40% loss of tidal habitat area for the moderate and severe sea level rise scenarios, respectively.

Conclusions:

  • Inland migration pathways are critical for the long-term survival of tidal habitats in the face of accelerating sea level rise.
  • Development patterns and coastal protection strategies significantly influence the future abundance of tidal habitats.
  • Conservation of undeveloped coastal lands is essential to facilitate tidal habitat retreat and maintain ecosystem services.