Approaches in Health Human Resource Forecasting: A Roadmap for Improvement.

Area of Science:

• Health Services Research
• Healthcare Management
• Health Workforce Planning

Background:

• Accurate health manpower forecasting is crucial for effective healthcare planning and resource allocation.
• Existing forecasting methods often struggle with dynamic variables and complex causal relationships.
• The study reviews current approaches to identify limitations and propose improvements.

Approach:

• A comprehensive literature review was conducted from 1990-2014.
• Databases searched included PubMed, Science Direct, ProQuest, and Google Scholar.
• Forty studies were analyzed to identify strengths and weaknesses of various forecasting methods.

Key Points:

• Two main categories of health manpower forecasting approaches were identified: conceptual and analytical.
• Common challenges include static models, inability to capture dynamic variables, and lack of scenario-making capabilities.
• Current methods often fail to support policy-makers in effective decision-making.

Conclusions:

• Future health manpower forecasting must be dynamic, comprehensive, and open-system oriented.
• Addressing the identified deficits is essential for developing effective methods for complex healthcare systems.
• Improved forecasting will enhance health workforce planning and policy development.