A data-driven search for semen-related phenotypes in conception delay

Sperm count, morphology, and motility have been reported to be predictive of pregnancy, although with equivocal basis prompting some authors to question the prognostic value of semen analysis. To assess the utility of including semen quality data in predicting conception delay or requiring >6 cycles to become pregnant (referred to as conception delay), we utilized novel data-driven analytic techniques in a pre-conception cohort of couples prospectively followed up for time-to-pregnancy. The study cohort comprised 402 (80%) male partners who provided semen samples and had time-to-pregnancy information. Female partners used home pregnancy tests and recorded results in daily journals. Odds ratios (OR), false discovery rates, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for conception delay (time-to-pregnancy > 6 cycles) were estimated for 40 semen quality phenotypes comprising 35 semen quality endpoints and 5 closely related fecundity determinants (body mass index, time of contraception, lipids, cotinine and seminal white blood cells). Both traditional and strict sperm phenotype measures were associated with lower odds of conception delay. Specifically, for an increase in percent morphologically normal spermatozoa using traditional methods, we observed a 40% decrease in conception delay (OR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.50, 0.81; p = 0.0003). Similarly, for an increase in strict criteria, we observed a 30% decrease in odds for conception delay (OR = 0.7, 95% CI = 0.52, 0.83; p = 0.001). On the other hand, an increase in percent coiled tail spermatozoa was associated with a 40% increase in the odds for conception delay (OR = 1.4, 95% CI = 1.12, 1.75; p = 0.003). However, our findings suggest that semen phenotypes have little predictive value of conception delay (area under the curve of 73%). In a multivariate model containing significant semen factors and traditional risk factors (i.e. age, body mass index, cotinine and ever having fathered a pregnancy), there was a modest improvement in prediction of conception delay (16% increase in area under the curve, p < 0.0002).