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Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics.

S Lion1, S Gandon2

  • 1CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS - Université de Montpellier - Université Paul-Valéry Montpellier - EPHE, 1919, route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France sebastien.lion@cefe.cnrs.fr.

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Spatial structure impacts pathogen evolution by influencing virulence, even without long-term evolutionary changes. This study models joint epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics to predict pathogen evolution and spatial variation.

Keywords:
kin selectionshort-term evolutionspatial structurevirulence

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology

Background:

  • Traditional spatial models often simplify pathogen evolution or assume it's too slow to impact fast epidemiological dynamics.
  • Understanding the interplay between spatial structure, host-parasite interactions, and pathogen evolution is crucial for predicting disease dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a novel approach for jointly modeling epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured host-parasite systems.
  • To investigate how spatial structure influences short-term pathogen evolution, particularly virulence, independent of long-term evolutionary outcomes.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a multi-strain epidemiological model as the foundation.
  • Employed spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyze population-level transmission and virulence dynamics.
  • Examined the role of spatial differentiation in mean virulence.

Main Results:

  • Spatial structure can drive short-term pathogen evolution by creating spatial differentiation in mean virulence, even without long-term evolutionary consequences.
  • Spatial differentiation arises from a balance between epidemiological factors and genetic effects.
  • This differentiation is linked to kin competition dynamics previously observed in spatially structured parasite evolution.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed modeling approach effectively captures transient evolutionary dynamics and the emergence of spatial phenotypic variation in pathogens.
  • Spatial structure is a significant factor influencing pathogen evolution on ecological timescales.
  • This framework aids in predicting how spatial patterns affect pathogen evolution and disease spread.