Robust Inference of Risks of Large Portfolios

We propose a bootstrap-based robust high-confidence level upper bound (Robust H-CLUB) for assessing the risks of large portfolios. The proposed approach exploits rank-based and quantile-based estimators, and can be viewed as a robust extension of the H-CLUB procedure (Fan et al., 2015). Such an extension allows us to handle possibly misspecified models and heavy-tailed data, which are stylized features in financial returns. Under mixing conditions, we analyze the proposed approach and demonstrate its advantage over H-CLUB. We further provide thorough numerical results to back up the developed theory, and also apply the proposed method to analyze a stock market dataset.