State-specific progress toward the 1990 objective for the nation for cigarette smoking prevalence

We predicted the smoking prevalences for 1990 for each state in the US, assuming that the decline in each state from 1985-1990 would be the same as the decline in the US from 1965-1985. In 1985, only three states had smoking prevalences less than 25 percent. Based upon the observed decline in smoking in the US from 1965-1985 of 0.5 percent per year, we predict that only seven states will have smoking prevalences less than 25 percent by 1990. States need to consider current smoking prevalence and achievable rates of decline when setting objectives for 1990 and beyond.