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Viral factors in influenza pandemic risk assessment

Marc Lipsitch1,2,3, Wendy Barclay4, Rahul Raman5

  • 1Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard T. H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States.

Elife
|November 12, 2016
PubMed

Insights

Pandemic influenza A virus threats emerge from animal spillovers. This study identifies key viral traits, like hemagglutinin binding and activation, to assess pandemic risk and guide prevention efforts.

Area of Science:

  • Virology
  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Influenza A virus pandemics originate from zoonotic spillovers, with few precursors detected before human transmission.
  • Expanding surveillance necessitates tools to evaluate pandemic potential of detected viruses.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop methods for assessing pandemic risk of influenza A viruses.
  • To identify viral traits that drive evolution toward pandemic threats.
  • To prioritize pandemic prevention and response strategies.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing genetic sequencing and biological assays to analyze viral traits.
  • Focusing on hemagglutinin receptor binding specificity.
  • Investigating hemagglutinin pH of activation and polymerase complex efficiency.

Main Results:

  • Progress has been made in developing risk assessment tools for influenza A viruses.
  • Specific viral traits are identified as key contributors to pandemic risk.
  • Challenges in predicting and preventing pandemic emergence remain.

Conclusions:

  • Assessing specific viral traits is crucial for identifying high-risk influenza A viruses.
  • Understanding evolution drivers aids in pandemic preparedness.
  • Targeted surveillance and intervention can mitigate pandemic threats.
Keywords:
epidemiologyglobal healthhumaninfectious diseaseinfluenza Amicrobiologypandemicrisk predictionvirus

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