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Forecasting Epidemiological Consequences of Maternal Immunization.

Ana I Bento1,2, Pejman Rohani1,2,3

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Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
|November 14, 2016
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Summary

Maternal immunization effectively reduces infant whooping cough (pertussis) incidence. However, potential antibody interference may increase disease in older children over time.

Keywords:
bluntinginterferencematernal immunizationpertussisroutine vaccination

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Immunology
  • Mathematical Modeling

Background:

  • Rising whooping cough (pertussis) incidence in vaccinated populations is a public health concern.
  • Maternal pertussis immunization is explored to protect newborns before routine vaccination.
  • Concerns exist about maternal antibodies interfering with infant immune responses and long-term effects.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the long-term epidemiological impact of maternal and routine pertussis immunization.
  • To assess the consequences of potential immune interference between maternal antibodies and routine vaccination.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a mathematical transmission model incorporating both routine and maternal immunization strategies.
  • Simulation of various immune interference scenarios to evaluate population-level effects.

Main Results:

  • Maternal immunization significantly reduces pertussis incidence in neonates.
  • Model predicts a 43% decrease in neonatal incidence with 60% coverage and 30% antibody blunting.
  • A 20% increase in incidence among 5-10 year olds is predicted under the same conditions, with a delayed onset of over a decade.

Conclusions:

  • Maternal immunization offers substantial benefits in reducing infant pertussis burden.
  • Adverse effects of maternal antibodies on routine vaccine immunogenicity could lead to increased incidence in older age groups over the long term.