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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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Planning horizon affects prophylactic decision-making and epidemic dynamics.
Luis G Nardin1, Craig R Miller1,2,3, Benjamin J Ridenhour1,2
1Center for Modeling Complex Interactions, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, United States.
Peerj
|November 16, 2016
Summary
Human behavior significantly influences infectious disease spread. Individuals adopt prophylactic behaviors, like vaccination or social distancing, only when considering intermediate planning horizons, impacting epidemic dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Behavioral Science
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- Human behavior is a key factor in infectious disease transmission.
- Individual decisions on protective measures are influenced by their planning horizon.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how planning horizons affect epidemic dynamics.
- To model the decision-making process for adopting prophylactic behaviors.
Main Methods:
- Developed an agent-based epidemiological model.
- Incorporated individual payoffs, planning horizons, prophylaxis efficacy, and disease prevalence.
- Utilized an ordinary differential equation (ODE) analog for comparison.
Main Results:
- Prophylactic behavior adoption occurs at intermediate planning horizons, not short or long ones.
- Behavioral adoption's impact on disease prevalence is not always monotonic.
- Prophylaxis reduces peak epidemic size but prolongs the epidemic duration, potentially causing secondary waves.
Conclusions:
- Planning horizons critically influence prophylactic behavior adoption and subsequent epidemic dynamics.
- Interventions can be strengthened by adjusting decision frequency or perceived infection risk.
- Understanding planning horizons is crucial for effective public health strategies.
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