Cholesterol-based personal risk assessment in coronary heart disease

Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES II) 1976-1980, we demonstrate how cross-sectional total serum cholesterol surveillance data can be used by an individual to assess current and future personal cholesterol risk status. We propose statistical models, based on a person's current measured cholesterol level and the relationship between cross-sectional age and cholesterol percentile estimates, that will allow prediction of future cholesterol levels or the age at which specified cholesterol risk levels will be reached if no cholesterol-altering intervention is taken. These models incorporate the observed variation in the NHANES II data and expected intraperson biological variation and intralaboratory analytical variation. We illustrate the adequacy of the models using data from the longitudinal Framingham Study.