[Ameliorative catalytic model of age-specific prevalence of leprosy simulated by using microcomputer]

This paper advances an ameliorative catalytic model to imitate age-specific prevalence rates for leprosy by using microcomputer for eight prefectures in Jiangsu province with analyses of results. The author considers that the distribution of age-specific prevalence of leprosy tallies with the ameliorative catalytic model. It is a curve of S shape which slowly goes up at beginning then faster rising and reaching a plateau after the point of peak. The curve is reflected in characteristics with a longer latent period, longer course of the disease and lower incidence. Through analysing and comparing the practical leprosy prevalence in eight prefectures with three parameters of the catalytic model, it is obviously that the prevalence was positive correlation with parameter a and negative correlation to parameter b, k. Therefore parameters--a, b, k in the two-stage catalytic model respectively represents the force of infection, the speed of eliminating the disease and an indicator of the effect of control disease. Catalytic models may be used to simulate and analyse the disease data in various periods, regions or masses for comprehensive evaluation of the force of infection, ability to eliminating disease in a population and the effect of control programme.