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Plant Distribution Data Show Broader Climatic Limits than Expert-Based Climatic Tolerance Estimates
Caroline A Curtis1, Bethany A Bradley1,2
1Graduate Program in Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, 01003, United States of America.
Plos One
|November 22, 2016
Summary
Species distribution models using plant distribution data provide broader climatic tolerance estimates than expert knowledge. This suggests expert data may underrepresent a species' realized niche, especially for widespread forbs and grasses.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Biogeography
- Conservation Biology
Background:
- Species distribution models (SDMs) increasingly incorporate environmental data, yet often rely on climatic variables for habitat suitability.
- Expert knowledge, such as that in the USDA PLANTS database, offers climatic tolerance estimates for many plant species.
- A gap exists in understanding how expert-derived climatic tolerance compares to estimates inferred from actual species distribution records.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare expert-derived climatic tolerance with estimates derived from plant distribution data.
- To identify factors influencing the congruence between expert and distribution-based climate niches.
- To determine when species distributions best approximate their climatic tolerance.
Main Methods:
- Compiled expert climatic tolerance (minimum/maximum precipitation, minimum temperature) for over 1800 plant species from the USDA PLANTS database.
- Derived empirical climatic tolerance from plant distribution data (GBIF) and climate data (WorldClim).
- Calculated the difference in climate niches (ΔCN) and assessed the influence of growth form and range size.
Main Results:
- Climate niches derived from distribution data were significantly broader than expert-based estimates.
- On average, plants tolerated lower minimum precipitation and temperature, and higher maximum precipitation, based on distribution data.
- Larger range sizes correlated with greater ΔCN for minimum precipitation and temperature; growth form also influenced ΔCN.
Conclusions:
- Plant distribution data yield more robust climatic tolerance estimates than expert knowledge, particularly for widespread forbs and grasses.
- Expert-based estimates may underestimate species' fundamental and realized niches.
- These findings have implications for refining SDMs and conservation assessments.
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