Climate change effects on airborne pathogenic bioaerosol concentrations: a scenario analysis

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Public Health
• Atmospheric Science

Background:

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirms global climate change, with significant impacts on water, agriculture, health, and biodiversity.
• Climate change poses risks to public health through various secondary effects, including potential alterations in airborne pathogen distribution.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore and quantify the range of airborne pathogen concentrations under future climate scenarios compared to historical data.
• To assess the influence of climate change on the dispersion of airborne pathogens during an outbreak or release.

Main Methods:

• Utilized five climate scenarios (2016-2045, 2036-2065) from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.
• Employed conversion tools to generate hourly future meteorological data sets.
• Modeled season-averaged airborne pathogen concentrations using an atmospheric dispersion model and compared with historical (1981-2010) data.

Main Results:

• Modelled airborne pathogen concentrations showed average modifications of several percentage points due to climate change.
• Four out of five climate scenarios predicted an average reduction in pathogen concentrations.
• Wind speed and global radiation were identified as critical factors influencing pathogen dilution, with hourly variations ranging from -67% to +639%.

Conclusions:

• Climate change can alter average airborne pathogen concentrations, with a general trend towards reduction in most projected scenarios.
• Significant hourly fluctuations in pathogen concentrations necessitate further investigation into factors like pathogen inactivation and precipitation probability.
• Future research should incorporate more detailed meteorological and biological factors to accurately predict airborne pathogen dynamics in a changing climate.