A SPATIOTEMPORAL MODEL TO SIMULATE CHEMOTHERAPY REGIMENS FOR HETEROGENEOUS BLADDER CANCER METASTASES TO THE LUNG

Tumors are composed of heterogeneous populations of cells. Somatic genetic aberrations are one form of heterogeneity that allows clonal cells to adapt to chemotherapeutic stress, thus providing a path for resistance to arise. In silico modeling of tumors provides a platform for rapid, quantitative experiments to inexpensively study how compositional heterogeneity contributes to drug resistance. Accordingly, we have built a spatiotemporal model of a lung metastasis originating from a primary bladder tumor, incorporating in vivo drug concentrations of first-line chemotherapy, resistance data from bladder cancer cell lines, vascular density of lung metastases, and gains in resistance in cells that survive chemotherapy. In metastatic bladder cancer, a first-line drug regimen includes six cycles of gemcitabine plus cisplatin (GC) delivered simultaneously on day 1, and gemcitabine on day 8 in each 21-day cycle. The interaction between gemcitabine and cisplatin has been shown to be synergistic in vitro, and results in better outcomes in patients. Our model shows that during simulated treatment with this regimen, GC synergy does begin to kill cells that are more resistant to cisplatin, but repopulation by resistant cells occurs. Post-regimen populations are mixtures of the original, seeded resistant clones, and/or new clones that have gained resistance to cisplatin, gemcitabine, or both drugs. The emergence of a tumor with increased resistance is qualitatively consistent with the five-year survival of 6.8% for patients with metastatic transitional cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder treated with a GC regimen. The model can be further used to explore the parameter space for clinically relevant variables, including the timing of drug delivery to optimize cell death, and patient-specific data such as vascular density, rates of resistance gain, disease progression, and molecular profiles, and can be expanded for data on toxicity. The model is specific to bladder cancer, which has not previously been modeled in this context, but can be adapted to represent other cancers.