Eminence and Omniscience: Statistical and Clinical Prediction of Merit

In this article, I review, comment upon, and assess some of the suggestions for evaluating scientific merit as suggested by contributors to this symposium. I ask the reader to take the perspective of the individual who has the final say in making a tenure, promotion, or hiring decision. I also ask that one imagine the difference between the fallible human state we are in on such an occasion and what it would be like to be omniscient when making such decisions. After adopting the terminology of "deep" and "surface" eminence, I consider what an omniscient being would take into account to determine eminence and to guide decision-making. After discussing how some proposed improvements in assessing merit might move us closer to wise decisions, I conclude by noting that both data and judgment are, and will continue to be, necessary. A clerk cannot determine eminence.