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Predicting hospitalization and mortality in patients with heart failure: The BARDICHE-index
Nicole H M K Uszko-Lencer1, Lutz Frankenstein2, Martijn A Spruit3
1Department of Cardiology, CARIM; Maastricht University Medical Centre + (MUMC+), Maastricht, The Netherlands; Department of Research & Education, CIRO, Centre of Expertise for Chronic Organ Failure, Horn, The Netherlands.
Insights
The BARDICHE-index offers a simple way to predict outcomes for chronic heart failure (CHF) patients. This new tool helps assess mortality and hospitalization risks, improving patient care.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Medical Prognostics
- Clinical Research
Background:
- Prognostic assessment in chronic heart failure (CHF) is challenging.
- Existing risk scores are often complex to apply in clinical practice.
- A need exists for a user-friendly prognostic tool for CHF patients.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a simple, multidimensional prognostic index for CHF patients.
- To create a tool that utilizes easily obtainable prognostic factors.
- To improve risk stratification and patient management in CHF.
Main Methods:
- Developed the BARDICHE-index using factors: Body mass index, Age, Resting systolic blood pressure, Dyspnea, NT-proBNP, Creatinine clearance (Cockroft-Gault), Heart rate, and Exercise capacity (6-min walk test).
- Validated the index in 1811 patients from two prospective CHF cohorts with a median follow-up of 887 days.
- Assessed 5-year all-cause survival, survival without all-cause hospitalization, and survival without CHF-related hospitalization.
Main Results:
- Significant differences in mortality and hospitalization rates were observed across BARDICHE-risk groups (low, medium, high).
- The index demonstrated strong predictive power for all-cause mortality (HR=3.63 per group) and hospitalization (HR=2.00-3.43 per group).
- Prognostic accuracy was independent of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and gender.
Conclusions:
- The BARDICHE-index is a validated, simple prognostic tool for chronic heart failure patients.
- It effectively predicts mortality and hospitalization risks.
- The index provides valuable prognostic information independently of LVEF.
Background:
Prediction of events in chronic heart failure (CHF) patients is still difficult and available scores are often complex to calculate. Therefore, we developed and validated a simple-to-use, multidimensional prognostic index for such patients.
Methods:
A theoretical model was developed based on known prognostic factors of CHF that are easily obtainable: Body mass index (B), Age (A), Resting systolic blood pressure (R), Dyspnea (D), N-termInal pro brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) (I), Cockroft-Gault equation to estimate glomerular filtration rate (C), resting Heart rate (H), and Exercise performance using the 6-min walk test (E) (the BARDICHE-index). Scores were given for all components and added, the sum ranging from 1 (lowest value) to 25 points (maximal value), with estimated risk being highest in patients with highest scores. Scores were categorized into three groups: a low (≤8 points); medium (9-16 points), or high (>16 points) BARDICHE-score. The model was validated in a data set of 1811 patients from two prospective CHF-cohorts (median follow-up 887days). The primary outcome was 5-year all-cause survival. Secondary outcomes were 5-year survival without all-cause hospitalization and 5-year survival without CHF-related hospitalization.
Results:
There were significant differences between BARDICHE-risk groups for mortality (hazard ratio=3.63 per BARDICHE-group, 95%-CI 3.10-4.25), mortality or all-cause hospitalization (HR=2.00 per BARDICHE-group, 95%-CI 1.83-2.19), and mortality or CHF-related hospitalization (HR=3.43 per BARDICHE-group, 95%-CI 3.01-3.92; all P<10-50). Outcome was predicted independently of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and gender.
Conclusions:
The BARDICHE-index is a simple multidimensional prognostic tool for patients with CHF, independently of LVEF.
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